podcast

Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick

21.09.2026
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Alexander Mattick is a researcher at Fraunhofer IIS and a PhD researcher at the University of Technology Nuremberg (UTN), and a regular on Yannic Kilcher's Discord. He first came on MLST in 2022, after helping research the Yann LeCun and Randall Balestriero episode on interpolation.

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Alexander treats inference as the thread running through modern machine learning: once you have a model, what does it cost to get an answer out of it? He works through Monte Carlo, GFlowNets, energy-based models, diffusion, normalising flows and flow matching, with four short explainers he recorded himself. He is blunt about energy-based models: you can sample from them in principle, but it is rarely worth the compute. JEPA and "world model", he says, are closer to branding than to technical categories.

Next: theories of deep learning, none of which he thinks predicts enough yet to guide practice, then reinforcement learning.

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Cold open: information is expensive

Welcome back, Alexander Mattic

Alexander's research background

Inference: densities, sampling and Monte Carlo

GFlowNets, energy functions and MCMC

Explainer: energy-based models

Why model a density at all?

From learned energies to flow matching

Explainers: diffusion and normalising flows

Are energy-based models generative?

JEPA, contrastive learning and collapse

Why non-language modalities need flows

Inference as search: branch and bound

Q-learning and delayed consequences

Flow matching, optimal transport, Fokker-Planck

Explainer: flow matching

AlphaFold, latents and scale versus architecture

Two families of deep learning theory

What a good theory would predict

The manifold hypothesis and compression

Is reward enough?

Control theory versus reinforcement learning

The Bitter Lesson and expensive information

Constrained RL: the constrained MDP toolbox

Creativity as constrained search

Reality is protean: when abstractions hold

What is a world model?

Prediction is not control

Robot demos, MPC and reliability

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REFERENCES:

[] GFlowNets (Bengio et al., 2021)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.04399

[] Contrastive Self-Supervised Learning (Anand, 2020)

https://ankeshanand.com/blog/2020/01/26/contrative-self-supervised-learning.html

[] LeJEPA (Balestriero and LeCun, 2025)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.08544v3

[] RL for Node Selection in Branch-and-Bound (Mattick)

https://openreview.net/forum?id=0ez68a5UqI

[] Flow Matching for Generative Modeling

https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02747v2

[] Disentangling feature and lazy training in deep neural networks

https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.08034v4

[] Reward is enough (Silver)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2021.103535

[] Learning ReLU networks to high uniform accuracy is intractable (Berner et al.)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.13531v2

[] Dota 2 with Large Scale Deep RL

https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.06680v1

[] Constrained Update Projection for Safe Policy Optimization (Yang et al., 2022)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.07089

[] SafeMPO (ICLR 2026)

https://openreview.net/forum?id=1m0EU6QXj6

[] Why Creativity Cannot Be Interpolated

https://archive.mlst.ai/paper/why-creativity-cannot-be-interpolated/

[] Invalid Action Masking (Huang and Ontañón)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14171

[] Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (Jaynes, 2003)

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/probability-theory/9CA08E224FF30123304E6D8935CF1A99

[] Training Agents Inside of Scalable World Models (Hafner et al., 2025)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24527v1

[] World Models (Ha and Schmidhuber, 2018)

https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.10122v4